Evaluating a Prospective Fault-Based Stress-Transfer Forecast for the M 7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake Region, 15 Years Later

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract Four days after the 12 May 2008 M 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake struck Sichuan region of China, we submitted a prospective forecast based on transfer stress from mainshock onto significant faults crossing through populated areas. We identified where largest aftershocks were likely to occur that could cause loss life. returned revised article journal 5 June 2008, marking last day our observation period. The primary testable features are locations and focal mechanisms larger (M ≥ 4.5) earthquakes; did these events happen or very near said they would? Did have same strikes, dips, rakes as modeled? In retrospect, is method consistent with all 4.5 earthquakes occurred? find but one aftershock known located stress-increased faults, their mechanism parameters overlap geological characteristics used in making calculations. Six seven lethal > occurred since lone exception triggered by hydraulic fracturing.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: The Seismic record

سال: 2023

ISSN: ['2694-4006']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0320230021